Nielsen sees Indian FMCG gross sales contracting 1%

Rural and semi city markets have posted a powerful bounce again in FMCG gross sales in June, whereas larger cities proceed to witness decline as “industry revival in Bharat outpaces that in India”, in response to information analytics agency Nielsen.

Sales in rural and smaller city markets reported improve of 12 per cent and seven per cent, respectively, whereas metro and sophistication I cities declined by four per cent and a couple of per cent in June, Nielsen mentioned in its report Q2 FMCG Growth Snapshot.

The coronavirus pandemic was extreme in Indian metros and concrete centres as in comparison with rural areas, and the variety of days of functioning of retail shops dealing in FMCG merchandise in metropolitan cities had been two-times much less as in comparison with shops in rural areas even in June, it mentioned.

“As a result, the industry sales continued to decline in bigger cities (above one lakh population, including metros and Town Class 1) in June. The smaller towns and rural markets, however, had a strong bounce back in June, after two months of negative growth during the lockdown,” Nielsen mentioned.

Interestingly in pre-COVID January-March Quarter, rural had a slower development fee than city.

“After witnessing slower growth compared to urban in Q120, rural markets led the industry revival in June with a double-digit (12 per cent) growth versus June of 2019.

“At an total quarter degree additionally, rural markets had been much less impacted as in comparison with their city counterpart (11 per cent decline for rural vs 20 per cent for city),” it said.

Nielsen, President – South Asia, Prasun Basu expects that going forward rural could outperform the large cities driven by multiple factors such as enhanced government schemes, lower instances of positive cases and a relatively well-spread out monsoon that bodes well for the agrarian economy.

“While no person is aware of the tip story of the pandemic…however rural has been largely untouched, the one warning I’d put is because the lockdowns getting opened up – there may be extra motion at folks — I hope that doesn’t have an effect on rural market in any means,” he said.

This was helped by several other macro-environment factors such as rural stimulus by the government as increased MNREGA allocation, Garib Kalyan Rojgar Abhiyan, support to agriculture and upskilling programmes for migrant workers that returned to their villages besides normal and timely rainfall.

Moreover, reverse migration added to the rural labour and consumer base.

“States like Maharashtra, Gujarat, Delhi, Andhra Pradesh that entice excessive numbers of migrant inhabitants, had a unfavorable impression attributable to reverse migration of labour. This gave a constructive increase to FMCG gross sales in states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan and Uttarakhand, the place the native governments dialed up on employment efforts reflecting in unemployment information as properly,” it said.

Rural markets in the north and east, which forms a bulk of rural sales, have performed better than other regional markets.

“These two zones noticed a shift from unfavorable trade development of April-May to a excessive single-digit development in June. On the opposite hand, the west zone that has a comparatively increased city inhabitants and had increased severity of the pandemic continued to say no in June,” it added.

Overall, Neilsen said, “Industry revival in Bharat outpaces that in india”.

According to Nielsen Global Connect Lead Retail Vertical and RMS, Sharang Pant, the urban market would bounce back.

“Once the intermittent lockdown is over and the third part of the Unlock, which has been introduced by the federal government, we predict returning of normalcy as shops opened for extra days and shopper are given extra alternative to go outdoors to however factor which they want. Moreover, after Unlock, the unemployment scenario can also be anticipated to return down,” he said.

The FMCG industry started to witness slowdown from the last week of March and got amplified in April-May 2020 when the industry declined by 28 per cent as compared to the same period of 2019. This was due to massive disruptions in production and supply chain, and low consumer confidence.

However, Unlock 1.0 in June saw a revival, as the industry clocked a growth of 4.5 per cent compared to the same period a year ago.

“The revival was aided by opening up of retail shops and shoppers taking a look at resuming regular consumption ranges throughout classes. The opening up of retail shops is obvious from the truth that the common variety of days of retailer closure dropped from 11-12 days in April-May to 5 days in June,” it said.

During the quarter, sales of non-food items witnessed a strong recovery specially in the personal care and home care categories.

“Consumers prioritised spending on important meals throughout the locked down quarter. We noticed an fascinating pattern within the non-food classes. After sharper declines in April-May the section registered a notable bounce again in June with Unlock 1.0. This restoration was significantly seen amongst Personal Care and Home Care classes,” it mentioned.

Moreover, conventional commerce channels as Kirana shops acquire again its share and e-commerce, which has a small shopper base, additionally jumped again to a excessive development zone.

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